# Business Process Modeling, Simulation and Design | My Assignment Tutor

394Business Process Modeling, Simulation and Designexperience more than 14 min of cycle time under the new design, which more than satis-fies the goal of at most 30 min. Furthermore, no type 3 patient experiences a cycle time longer than 45 min, as was the stated goal. As a matter of fact, less than 3% have cycle times above 40 min. The conclusions from the simulation analysis are thus that the redesigned process pro-duces much shorter cycle times than the existing process and that it achieves the goals for the cycle time performance articulated in the vision statement. Although the redesigned process satisfies the stated cycle time goals, it is not necessarily an optimal design. A common managerial concern is the trade-off between the customer service and the cost of installing new technology such as the new local area network. One possible cost-saving strategy is to reduce the staff by operating with two admissions offi-cers as in the original system. The cycle time statistics must be recomputed to figure out how close they are to the numerical goals specified in the vision statement. How simula-tion may be used to aid in optimizing business process performance is further discussed in Chapter 10.9.7 Summary This chapter presented some basic statistical tools for analysis of input and output simu-lation data. For the analysis of input data, it was shown how goodness-of-fit tests can be employed to determine suitable distributions for random variables such as interarrival times and processing times. We also explored techniques for generating uniformly distrib-uted random numbers and random variates from well-known theoretical distributions. For the analysis of output data, the focus was placed on the problems of estimation and hypothesis testing. These statistical tools are necessary to be able to draw valid conclu-sions with respect to the performance of business processes. The last part of this chapter focused on the analysis of two process-design cases. These cases illustrate how input/output data analysis and simulation modeling in ExtendSim can be used for analyzing process performance and for comparing different design alternatives. 9.8 Training Cases 9.8.1 Case 1: Improving the X-Ray Process at County Hospital* County Hospital wishes to improve the service level of its regular x-ray operation, which runs from 8:00 AM to 8:00 PM. Patients have identified the total required time as their main concern with this process. Management, on the other hand, is concerned with utilization of available resources. Management has created a process-improvement team to study this problem. The process might be redesigned as a result of the team’s recommendations. Adapted from Anupindi, R. et al., Managing Business Process Flows, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ, 1999. Input and Output Data Analysis 395The team has defined the entry point to the x-ray process to be the instant a patient leaves the physician’s office en route to the x-ray lab. The exit point has been defined as the instant at which the patient and the completed x-ray enter the physician’s office. Broadly speaking, two types of patients arrive to the x-ray process: emergency and non- . emergency patients (priority levels 1 and 2, respectively). The emergency patients arrive according to a Poisson process with a mean of four patients per hour. The nonemergency patients are registered as they enter, and a sample of the arrival time data is provided in Table 9.14. Until now, no attempt has been made to further analyze these data, so there is no insight into what the arrival process looks like. The team has identified 12 activities in the current x-ray process (see Table 9.15), which is the same irrespective of the patient type. The only differences between patient categories are the activity times and their distributions, specified in Table 9.16.TABLE 9.14 Sample Arrival Times of Nonemergency PatientsPatient # Time of Arrival (in Minutes from Time Zero) Patient # Time of Arrival (in Minutes from Time Zero) 1 6.30 31 197.89 2 10.13 32 205.50 3 17.07 33 215.42 4 17.09 34 219.95 5 23.94 35 223.50 6 26.06 36 233.33 7 27.65 37 234.89 8 29.21 38 239.20 9 41.65 39 244.29 10 44.69 40 247.29 11 49.79 41 249.90 12 60.07 42 250.25 13 70.34 43 256.34 14 70.73 44 257.90 15 74.32 45 268.97 16 84.59 46 276.82 17 91.77 47 280.43 18 95.78 48 281.94 19 98.20 49 293.23 20 117.24 50 293.57 21 122.85 51 299.79 22 130.58 52 303.75 23 137.46 53 306.58 24 139.76 54 308.13 25 142.52 55 314.06 26 150.70 56 322.84 27 151.95 57 326.51 28 154.74 58 338.21 29 157.48 59 339.91 30 193.25 60 365.79

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